Empty Leg Analysis

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Understanding Empty Legs

What is an Empty Leg?

An empty leg (also called "deadhead" or "ferry flight") occurs when an aircraft must reposition to another location without paying passengers. This typically happens in two scenarios:

1. Post-Trip Repositioning: After dropping off passengers at their destination, the aircraft must return to its home base or reposition for the next charter
2. Pre-Trip Positioning: Before picking up passengers, the aircraft must fly from its current location to the departure point

The Economics of Empty Legs

Empty legs represent a significant cost to charter operators:

• Direct Operating Costs: Fuel, crew, maintenance reserves, landing fees
• Opportunity Costs: Aircraft and crew tied up in non-revenue operations
• Wear and Tear: Flight hours consumed without revenue generation

Two Critical Questions

Every empty leg presents operators with two key questions:

1. Should we sell this empty leg? (Profitability Analysis)
2. What's the likelihood it will sell? (Probability Analysis)

Our toolkit provides calculators for both questions, helping you make data-driven decisions about empty leg sales.

Profitability Analysis

The profitability calculator determines whether carrying a trip at a proposed broker payment makes financial sense compared with the repositioning you were going to fly anyway.

Core Calculation

Both routings — the original repositioning and the reroute that carries the trip — are timed from the airport pairs and cruise speed you enter and priced off a single Cost Per Flight Hour figure. The tool does not itemize fuel, maintenance reserve, crew, landing, handling, or catering — build those into your hourly number before you enter it.

Everything from here to the end of this section is background economics you work out outside the calculator — the cost build-up behind your hourly rate, worked net-benefit scenarios, and cost-recovery screening. None of it is a field or an output in the tool.

Cost Components

1. Aircraft Direct Operating Costs

Costs that vary directly with flight hours:

• Fuel: Calculated based on aircraft fuel burn rate and distance
• Maintenance Reserves: Hourly cost for engine and airframe maintenance
• Crew Costs: Hourly crew compensation (if applicable)

2. Route-Specific Costs

Costs that depend on the specific route:

• Landing Fees: Vary significantly by airport (typically $100-$1,000+)
• Handling Fees: FBO services, ramp fees, etc.
• Navigation Fees: Oceanic or international flight fees
• Permits: International overflight and landing permits

3. Empty Leg vs. Passenger Flight Additional Costs

Selling an empty leg adds certain costs:

• Passenger Services: Catering, beverages, cabin preparation
• Insurance: Some policies have per-passenger costs
• Customer Service Time: Sales, booking, coordination overhead
• Marketing Costs: Listing fees on empty leg marketplaces

Profitability Scenarios

Key Decision Factors

1. Cost Recovery Percentage
   Cost Recovery = (Revenue / Total Repositioning Cost) × 100%
   • 100%+ = Profitable (covers all costs plus additional revenue)
   • 75-100% = Consider (offsets significant portion of costs)
   • 50-75% = Marginal (case-by-case decision)
   • <50% = Generally reject unless strategic reasons
2. Strategic Value

   Sometimes accepting a marginally unprofitable empty leg makes sense:

   • Building relationship with high-value potential customer
   • Market penetration in new geographic area
   • Filling slow period to maintain crew currency
   • Competitive response to maintain market presence
3. Operational Flexibility

   Selling an empty leg commits you to:

   • Specific departure time (reduces schedule flexibility)
   • Specific route (may not be optimal if circumstances change)
   • Customer service obligations (briefings, special requests, etc.)

Probability Modeling

Even if an empty leg would be profitable to sell, that doesn't mean it will sell. The probability calculator helps estimate the likelihood of filling an empty leg based on multiple factors.

Probability Factors

The model scores six factors and combines them as a weighted average. Five of them run off distributions you configure in the tool; the sixth, holiday proximity, runs off a fixed table built into the calculator. Nothing here is a market feed, and the calculator never asks for a price or an aircraft type.

1. Airport Popularity

The tool scores the airport the empty leg departs from — the arrival airport of your first flight. It looks that airport up in the popularity data you have loaded, and falls back to the single Airport Popularity slider under Additional Parameters (ships at 50%) for any airport it does not find.

Note what this is not. It is a per-airport traffic share drawn from your own flight history, not a per-route booking conversion rate. Two empty legs out of the same airport score identically on this factor no matter where they are going.

2. Day of Week

The tool reads the day of the empty leg and takes the value straight off your Day of Week Distribution sliders. The configured percentage is the factor score — there is no separate fill rate and no multiplier applied on top of it.

Out of the box the model therefore treats Monday through Thursday identically and scores Friday through Sunday twice as high. Those are placeholders, not research. Move the sliders to your own booking history before you lean on the output.

3. Sales Window

The gap between your two flight dates — how far ahead of the flight the empty leg is being worked. The tool buckets that gap and scores it from your Sales Effectiveness (Quote to Flight) sliders:

• 0-1 days: ships at 10%
• 1-3 days: ships at 15%
• 3-7 days: ships at 25%
• 7-14 days: ships at 20%
• 14-30 days: ships at 15%
• 30+ days: ships at 10%

The shipped curve peaks at 3-7 days out and falls off in both directions: closer in the audience is gone, further out the buyer has not started shopping. Reset it to your own close rates.

4. Route Type (Domestic vs. International)

The tool checks the two ends of the empty leg and asks one question: do both identifiers begin with "K"? If they do, the leg scores your Domestic Operations percentage (ships at 75%). If either does not, it scores the remainder — 100 minus that percentage.

Read the test literally: it is a string check on the identifier, not a customs question. A leg to Anchorage (PANC), Honolulu (PHNL), or Toronto (CYYZ) scores as international here, and so does any leg you entered with three-letter IATA identifiers.

5. Holiday Proximity

The tool measures how many days separate the empty leg from the nearest of eight US holidays, then moves a base score of 50 up or down by that holiday's demand multiplier, tapered by distance.

Demand multipliers as shipped:

• Above 1.0 (pull): Thanksgiving 1.5, Memorial Day 1.4, Labor Day 1.4, July 4th 1.3, MLK Day 1.1, Presidents Day 1.1
• Below 1.0 (drag): New Year's Day 0.6, Christmas 0.4

So a leg two days off Thanksgiving scores 75, and a leg two days off Christmas scores 20. Christmas and New Year's Day are modeled as drags on empty-leg resale, not as peaks.

6. Seasonal

The tool reads the month of the empty leg from your Monthly Activity Level grid — your share of annual flying in that month — and scales it by 8.33, so a month carrying 12% of your year scores about 100 and a month carrying 6% scores about 50. Enter your own twelve figures; the shipped numbers are placeholders.

General seasonal patterns worth reflecting in those figures:

• Peak Season: December holidays, summer, spring break
• Shoulder Season: Fall, late spring
• Off Season: January-February (post-holidays), late summer

Composite Probability Score

Because both the factor scores and the weights are yours to set, there is no single "correct" probability for a given empty leg. The number means what your configured distributions and weights make it mean. Two things follow: configure the tool from your own flight history before you act on the output, and compare legs only against other legs scored under the same settings — which is what the Compare Scenarios tab is for.

Using Probability in Decision Making

This expected value approach helps you make rational decisions even with uncertainty. A positive expected value suggests listing the empty leg is worthwhile even if there's a chance it won't fill.

Pricing Strategy

Pricing Principles

1. Cost-Plus Minimum

   Never price below your marginal cost (the additional cost of flying with passengers vs. flying empty). This should be your absolute floor.

2. Market-Based Maximum

   Price should be low enough to attract customers who wouldn't book a full charter. Typically 40-70% discount from full charter rates.

3. Dynamic Adjustment

   Adjust pricing based on:

   • Time to departure (lower price as departure approaches if not filled)
   • Demand signals (inquiries, website traffic)
   • Competitive listings (other operators' empty legs)

Pricing Tiers

Dynamic Pricing Example

Best Practices for Empty Leg Sales

Operational Best Practices

1. List Early, Price Dynamically

   List empty legs as soon as the charter is confirmed (14+ days when possible). Start with higher pricing and reduce strategically as departure approaches.

2. Flexible Departure Windows

   Offer customers a window (e.g., "Departing between 2pm-4pm") rather than exact time. This provides operational flexibility while still selling the leg.

3. Use Multiple Channels

   List on:

   • Your own website (no commission fees)
   • Empty-leg marketplaces and broker platforms
   • Social media (Instagram, Facebook for your followers)
   • Email list (past customers and prospects)
   • Broker network (relationships with charter brokers)
4. Clear Terms and Conditions

   Make it crystal clear that:

   • Departure time may vary within a window
   • Empty leg is subject to cancellation if primary charter changes
   • Payment terms (typically full payment upfront for empty legs)
   • Cancellation policy (often non-refundable or limited refund)

Sales and Marketing

1. Build an Email List

   Create a database of customers interested in empty legs. Segment by:

   • Geographic preference (where they typically fly)
   • Aircraft size preference
   • Lead time flexibility (can book on short notice vs. need advance notice)
2. Create Urgency

   Empty legs are inherently time-sensitive. Use this in marketing:

   • "Departing in 3 days"
   • "Only 2 seats remaining"
   • "Price drops $500 every 24 hours"
3. Emphasize Value

   Highlight the discount prominently:

   • "Save $12,000 vs. full charter"
   • "70% off our normal rate"
   • "Fly private for less than first class commercial"

Risk Management

4. Payment Terms

   Empty legs should require:

   • Full payment in advance (non-refundable or limited refund)
   • Credit card on file for any additional charges
   • Signed terms acknowledging cancellation policies
5. Quality Control

   Don't let discounted pricing mean discounted service:

   • Maintain same safety standards
   • Provide same quality catering (unless customer declines)
   • Professional crew and aircraft presentation
   • Excellent customer service

   Empty leg customers can become full-price customers if impressed.

Technology and Automation

1. Automated Notifications

   Set up systems to automatically notify prospects when empty legs match their preferences

2. Real-Time Availability

   Remove sold empty legs immediately from all channels to avoid double-booking

3. Data Tracking

   Track metrics on empty legs:

   • Fill rate by route, day of week, lead time
   • Average discount required to sell
   • Customer acquisition source
   • Repeat customer rate

Additional Resources

Related Tools

• Empty Leg Profitability Calculator - Analyze if selling makes financial sense
• Empty Leg Probability Calculator - Estimate likelihood of filling
• Fleet Schedule Optimizer - Minimize empty legs through better aircraft scheduling

Profitability Calculator Probability Calculator